Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Positive start for U.S. markets

US markets
U.S. markets rise in early session, led by IT companies after leading manufacturer of personal computers worldwide Hewlett-Packard announced better than expected financial results for the fourth quarter of the fiscal year. The company will publish a full report on November 24th announced a preliminary net profit for the three months to October 31 from 84 cents, or 1.03 dollars per share if excluding depreciation expenses and restructuring. Consensus expectations were for earnings of $ 1 per share. Revenue for the fourth quarter grew by 19 percent to 33.6 billion dollars. Taking into account the effects of movements in exchange rates of revenue growth was 16 percent.
For HP expects fiscal 2009 earnings by an amount between 127.5 and 130.0 billion dollars and profit of between 3.38 to 3.53 dollars per share. Today securities company to get 12.47 percent to 33.00 dollars in opening level of 33.56 dollars.
Positive impact on the market and news emerged that the Executive Director of Yahoo! Jerry Yang has resigned, which increased speculation of renewed negotiations for a merger with Mirosoft.

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Friday, November 14, 2008

Asian Markets are going up

Asian markets rise, reducing its weekly drop, supported by growth in oil prices and metals at the beginning of the session, which led to the appreciation of the shares of companies neftodobivniya and mining sector. Supporting the growth of exchanges in Asia yesterday and turned sharply rising indexes in New York, which last two hours of trading Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by nearly 9 percent as the session ended with a 6.67 percent increase to 8 281.14 points.
Leading to rises in U.S. indices by over 6 per cent yesterday were companies in the energy sector, which received strong support from the appreciation of oil futures by 3.5 percent in that period for trading of contracts with delivery in December expired yesterday and many companies fill their stocks by the end of the year.
Today, hours after the start of the session of the European markets of the U.S. fyucharsite light crude oil supply in January to become cheaper with 1.41 percent, to 57.42 dollars for a barrel. Yesterday broadest index of U.S. companies Standard & Poor's 500 has increased by 6.92 percent to 911.29 points. Technological NASDAQ Composite Index grew by 6.50% to 1 596.70 points. Today BHP Billiton poskapna by 5.6 percent in Sydney once during the session the stock exchange in New York oil price is refunded from 21 meat from his bottom barrel to 54.67 dollars reached earlier yesterday, while nickel and zinc increased.
Inpex rose by 9.2 percent in Tokyo after winning the rights to develop oil fields in Indonesia and after the previous day shares of energy companies in Asia cheapen sulno to other sectors. United Microelectronics rose to 6.91 percent, exceeding the daily limit of 5 percent set by the exchange in Taipei because of speculation that the second-largest maker of chips in the world can get Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing.
MSCI Asia Pacific grew by 0.8 percent to 82.93 points after three day drop by 8.8 percent.

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Advices of Trichet for financial crisis

Trichet
More than a year of financial market disturbances kept the world on tenterhooks, after a long period of stability in 2007 became a turning point that financial markets will long remember - says the president of the European Central Bank Jean - Claude Trichet in an article for Financial Times. Central banks, supervisory authorities and governments around the world responded to the risk - and continue to meet in order to recover as soon as possible stability and conditions pleasant growth. The root of the crisis was widespread underestimation of risk - believes Trichet. Financial operators nedootseniha amount of risk they were taken.
In 2006 and early 2007 some politicians - among them, and Trichet - have already begun to say that market participants should prepare for a serious correction. Until middle of 2007 in the banking world kings model "created and distributed - Trichet says. This means that there are divisions between those who hold credit risk and those who supervise and manage.
Investors assume that those who created (financial products) along with it will carry out the necessary risk management. But there is no guarantee of that. They received the faith of the ability of rating agencies to assess risk instruments that were new to them.

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Monday, November 3, 2008

Decrease of building expenses in USA

USA Building
According to today export data in the U.S. construction spending decreased in September, but that decline was less than expected to decline by 0.8 percent.
Total expenditure decreased by 0.3 percent to 1.060 trillion dollars, the data for August were revised upward by stagnation in the direction to increase by 0.3 percent. Housing expenditure decreased by 1.3 percent to 344.4 billion dollars in August after having increased by 1.9 percent. Annual decline in the cost of housing reached 27.1 percent in September as a result of the difficult lending led to a decline in purchases. Costs for non-residential construction decreased by 0.1 percent in September, harder credit conditions have an effect on commercial construction. Expenditure in private construction increased by 0.1 percent, while the public fall by 1.3 percent in September.

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European Comission started procedure against Ireland

Joaquin Almunya
European Commission launches excessive deficit procedure against the Irish government, which has authorized its budget deficit to grow out of control, according to The Irish Times. Today commissioner for economic and monetary policies Joaquin Almunya has started proceedings against Ireland for the budget deficit, which is expected to reach 5.5 percent this year and 6.5 percent in 2009.
Under the Stability and Growth Pact of the European Union requires member countries to maintain the ratio deficit / GDP ratio under 3 percent and the debt / GDP - below 60 percent.
Under the pact government can be fined if it fails to bring its deficit below 3 percent over three or four years, although this is considered rather a theoretical possibility. In practice it has never applied. Now that the excessive deficit procedure was initiated by the Commission expected the government to a series of measures that may apply to set deficit under control. In an interview in The Irish Times last Friday Mr Almunya said that the deficit of 5.5 percent is excessive and is not even close to the relative value of 3 percent, to not use the clause for exceptional circumstances. "The Stability and Growth Pact is not for fines. It is not intended to find fault Member States and seek wines, according Almunya, "In some cases, peer pressure is needed to use the European dimension and multilateral surveillance to cause governments to adopt adequate measures ... It also supports Government to implement policies that sometimes are not very popular. "

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1,800 banks in USA are applying for financial aid

Commercial Bank
Banking sector in the U.S. opened a new lucrative business - applying for government support in terms of financial crisis. According to survey of Wall Street Journal, 1800 banks in the United States are considering to benefit from state aid. Banks just recently utterly booked to be held this opportunity. There were concerns that receiving aid from the state is a sign of weak capital positions. But the mood of the market have changed: now for the worst may pass those banks that have not benefited from the state rescue package.
Nearly 1800 public listed banks in the U.S. will apply for financial support from the government. However, this is not the final figure: if the conditions for granting state money be favorable, even thousands of private banks may decide on the top step. The first step of the U.S. government was to draw 125 billion dollars in the nine major banks. More such funds to other banks are provided as part of the stabilization plan of 700 U.S. dollars billion On that top Finance Ministry has opened to help not only banks but also of non-bank financial institutions such as insurance companies. Some financial experts worry that the money would be insufficient.

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US Dollar under preassure

US Dollar
Today the euro got more expensive against the yen and dollar, after growth of Asian and European markets encouraged investors to increase purchases of highly profitable assets. The Euro currency increased its price by 1.10 percent to 1.2865 dollars, with 1.76 percent to 127.5500 yen and by 0.10 percent to 0.7930 pounds at the end of the morning session of the European markets.
The US Dollar decreased its price for the first time in three days against the euro because of speculation that slowing growth in the U.S. economy will increase pressure on the Fed for further reduction in interest rates. Speculation that during this week will be reduced interest rates in the euro, UK and Australia also support the European currency because it is expected that by stabilizing capital markets repatriation of dollars and yen will decline. The appreciation of European currencies will likely be limited by data out today on industrial activity and construction costs in the U.S..

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$254 billion injection from Swiss National Bank to funding markets

Responding to the news that LIBOR fell on Wednesday following the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Swiss National Bank’s $254 billion (£145.7 billion) injection into the wholesale funding markets, financial solutions company Think Money Loans (http://www.thinkmoney.com/) commented that this could mark the start of a recovery in the mortgages and loans market, so long as the conditions remain in place for lenders to continue to do business.
Despite last week’s half-point base rate drop, which was aimed in part at encouraging lenders to offer lower interest rates on their mortgages and other credit products, three-month sterling LIBOR – the rate most banks base their mortgage rates on – has been slow to respond.
Read the rest of the article here

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Sunday, November 2, 2008

Czech Republic will delay the Lisbon agreement


The Constitutional Court of the Czech Republic postponed from 10 to 25 November to hear the case whether the Lisbon treaty is in accordance with the constitution of the country, delivered the European agencies. Postponement is at the Vatslav Czech President Klaus, who is famous for its eurio-scepticism.
Such delays do not happen often, but the meeting was so important that the president asked him to attend and we uvazhihme request, a court spokesperson said Mihal Spachil. Havel was unable to attend the 10 th November due to urgent commitments in Ireland and Saudi Arabia.
The Czech Parliament is awaiting the decision of the Constitutional Court to initiate the procedure of ratification of the Treaty of Lisbon, the agencies noted.

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Spain is going to recession too


In the third quarter of Spain's economy has giot narrower for the first time since 1993 till today, leading to fears that the country has entered into recession, which will be confirmed in negative growth in Gross Domestic Product during the last quarter of the year. The Spanish economy got narrower by 0.2 percent compared with growth of 0.1 percent in the previous quarter, according to data published today by the Central Bank, Bloomberg reported.
Annual economic growth was 0.9 percent, the Spanish Institute of Statistics will publish the first official revisions of expectations for growth of GDP for 2008 and 2009 on Nov. 13. Today the main Spanish Ibex 35 stock index fell by 13 of it last week because of fears that the global financial crisis will affect economic growth in Latin America that are the subject of a major investment of Spanish companies. Ibex this year has fallen by 42 percent this year, while manufacturing activity in the country decreased for the 10th consecutive month in September. Global economic slowdown eroded foreign investment and economic activity in the country and resulted in millions of unsold properties and a decline in employment in the sector. Because that unemployment in Spain has increased to 11.3 percent, the highest in the EU. The European Commission expects Spain to enter into recession this year, along with Germany and Britain, according to estimates published on September 10.

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American Maerkets are going up

U.S. markets rise, reducing most sudden monthly decline for the past 21 years after international loans continue to become cheaper and profits of companies like Express Scripts and Wynn Resorts exceeded market expectations, according to Bloomberg.
Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase increased by 9.45 percent to 17.61 U.S. dollars and 5.69 percent to 39.76 U.S. dollars. Today Libora quarterly loans in dollars fell by 16.6 basis points to 3.03 percent as the British bank association.
The largest pharmaceutical firm (Pharmacy benefits manager (PBM) or company whose task is to mediate between pharmacies, patients and insurance companies who make a fraction of the cost of prescribed medicines to insured persons), Medco Health Solutions, with 5.64 of poskapva WTO to 38.80 dollars after the third-largest PBM in the U.S. company, Express Scripts increased its earnings forecast for 2008.
Company revenue for the reporting period increased by 18 percent to 769.2 U.S. dollars million, exceeding market expectations. Three hours after the start of trading the broad index of U.S. companies Standard & Poor's 500 marks an increase of 0.45 percent, to 958.35 points. The index of top U.S. companies Dow Jones Industrial Average, rose by 0.41 percent to 9 218.52 points.
Technological NASDAQ Composite Index increased by 0.44% to 1 705.91 points.

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Friday, October 3, 2008

French Economy is going in recession

French Economy delay
The gross domestic product of France is expected to decrease by 0.1 percent in the third and fourth quarters, and account growth up to 0.9 percent throughout 2008, according to preliminary data removed on Friday by the National Institute of the INSEE. It means that the second-largest economy in the eurozone is entering a technical recession for the first time in over 15 years during the third quarter.
In June, the last report, the National Statistics Institute announced that it expects growth of 1.6 percent this year after 2.1 percent in 2007 and 2.4 percent in 2006. Its new forecast corresponds roughly to revised data from the government, which expects 1 percent growth in 2008. Although the government has forecast quarterly, INSEE provides a delay of 0.1 percent in the third to fourth quarters, together with massive job losses. According to Insee forecasts economic growth of France will delay than the euro for the third consecutive year, significant risks to the French economy into account the credit crisis and volatile oil prices.
Global credit crisis threatens to slow further growth of the global economy and Insee expects consumer spending to fuel growth in recent years to remain sluggish in the second half of the year. After a contraction of 0.3 percent of GDP in April-June, France will mark three consecutive quarters of negative growth, but Eric Dubois, head of the Bureau for Economic Research at INSEE, refused to talk about recession and stressed that the reduction was "modest" and expected that GDP growth will be positive for the year.

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All eyes on USA

kamara
After the plan to rescue the financial sector last night passed through the U.S. Senate, as expected, all eyes are confined to the forthcoming vote in the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of the U.S. Congress. It is expected to vote Friday by the representatives will likely adopt a bill for improvements spending of 700 U.S. dollars billion, which surprisingly rejected on Monday. Besides the amount of 700 U.S. dollars billion, which will be paid by the government to buy mortgage securities by U.S. financial institutions, the Senate added some changes to rescue plan. There are various tax reductions, temporarily increase the guarantee from the state fund FDIC deposits of banks (from 100,000 U.S. dollars to 250,000 U.S. dollars) power to amend the method of entry of assets under market value. Can be made that the proposed tax relief will not be like some more conservative Democrats. But the bill has good chances to go and the next vote, on Monday he reached only 12 votes.
Representatives in Congress probably have turned attention to the fact that surrender their first lead until almost historical collapse of stock exchange indices in the U.S. on Monday. Upcoming elections next month may present a problem for the approval of the bill, which is perceived by the population as support for the greedy players on Wall Street. But few party organizers would like to be blamed for the collapse of the stock market. Many leaders in Congress have expressed optimism that the bill will be adopted.

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Thursday, September 11, 2008

Germany, Britain and Spain will not miss recession

Jean-Claude Trichet
On Wednesday the European Commission predicted that Germany, Britain and Spain will go into recession this year. Have crushed the last hopes that Europe will avoid the severe economic crisis, writes newspaper "Financial Times". Few will better cope France and Italy. European Commission expects the economy of the entire European Unity to increase its Gross Domestic product by 1.4% this year, and 15 members of the Euro currency by 1.3%. The latest forecast made in April, indicating respectively 2% and 1.7%. The strong negative revision is to confirm that the EU's executive body began to consider their calculations fall in consumer confidence and difficult business conditions.
The Commissioner for economic and monetary policy of the European Commission, describes the economic environment of the old continent as "difficult and precarious". The doubling of the financial crisis and the price of oil for the last year and the significant adjustment of property market in some countries given their negative contribution .
The forecast for German economy is in decline - 0.2% in the third quarter and a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth), after minus 0.5% growth of GDP in the second quarter. Of Britain and Spain are expected negative growth in GDP in the third and fourth quarter.
But France and Italy, both countries with negative growth of GDP in the second quarter is expected to go to zero in Q3.
President of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet told some encouraging words. He told a European Parliament that the current episode of weak economic growth is expected to be followed by a gradual recovery and development. ECB chief acknowledged that not considered to decreases in interest rates in the euro, as it should be against the rise of labour costs in euro.

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Medvedev is looking for friendship with OPEC

Medvedev
On Wednesday in Wien the Organisation of the parties - the oil-exporting wreath two surprises: the reduction of quotas for extraction of raw materials with half a million barrels a day, and deepening of relations with the biggest producer of oil outside the cartel, Russia. Russia attend the meetings as an observer OPEC than 10 years. This time, however, Russians sent many high representative of the Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin. Analysts associated with this visit tensions between Russia and the West after the conflict in Georgia, said Reuters.
In the past there had been cases in which Russia has agreed to reduce oil production in line with OPEC in order to support prices. Russian energy ministry indicate that Russia wants to keep a regular dialogue with OPEK and invite representatives of the countries of OPEC a meeting in Moscow in October.
In separate news today the Russian president Dmitri Medvedev once again accused the U.S. of being provocated the crisis in financial markets. "We can not change the situation on financial markets, let's just be Americans repair with their mortgage system. Although if it say more simply, they certainly predicted all", RIA quoted him. According to the Russian president, despite the crisis in the United States and Western Europe, the Russian stock market will be able to cope with all their problems and to return to levels since the beginning of the year. Medvedev's application comes at a time when Russian indices are at least two years, and for the past two days RTAs fell by over 12%.

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Tuesday, September 9, 2008

US Dollar getting power versus the EUR

US Dollar
On Monday the dollar marked a new seriously slumping, reaching its highest levels against the euro since October last year here. Support the U.S. currency as proved that the U.S. government decided to assume control over the mortgage giants Fannie and Freddie, and news from the European markets that are experiencing seems ever more serious problems because of the crisis in the financial sector and delayed global economy.
Yesterday marked increase in the single currency early in the day, but then went sharply down under the pressure of news from the euro and the intervention of central banks in Korea and Russia to support their currencies as they aim to increase purchases of dollars from international markets and are spending its reserves in euros.
At the same time, it appears that the U.S. economy has reached bottom and is now slowly begin to recover. Investors have adopted the government's moves against the two mortgage giants is a strong positive signal to overcome the problems of Mortgage Market in the United States. In the EUR yesterday also reported a reduction in the index of investor confidence SENTX. Yesterday the European currency got cheaper to 1.4053 dollars, which is its lowest level in 11 months here, having finished the day at levels of 1.4128 dollars. The US Dollar index calculating the presentation of U.S. money to the currencies of the six major trading partners of the United States increased to one-year peak of 79,844 points.

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Delay of trade surplus in Germany

Bsuiness girl
Today, the Bureau of National Statistical Office in Wiesbaden published data on the trade balance of the largest European economy in July. German exports fell by more than economists expected, as this is likely due to the slowing of the economy in the world and record oil prices reached in July. Seasonal weighted exports fell by 1.7 percent over June, as forecasts were for the decrease by 1.1 percent. On an annual basis, exports account growth by 7 percent. Exports of the biggest European economy in July was valued at 87.1 billion euros. Export is the victim most of the slowing economies of the biggest commercial partners of Germany.
In the second quarter GDP of the euro zone fell by 0.2 percent and is likely to be recorded and fall in the third quarter of the year. And even though oil prices have fallen by almost 29 percent of the record levels reached in July, they remain 40 percent higher than the levels only contact year. In July, German imports grow by 7.4 percent from the previous month, reaching 73.2 billion euros, taking its increase on an annual basis was 16 percent.
The trade balance in the country that represents the difference between exports and imports remains active, but the surplus decreased to 13.9 billion euros. By comparison, exports in June was more than imports with 19.7 billion euros. The trade balance also affect the Gross Domestic Product of the country, as growth in exports means jobs and growth in production, and vice versa.
Seasonal weighted value of the trade balance also reduced in July, compared to the previous month, reaching 11.8 billion euros. The balance on current account in Germany, which represents the ratio between the amount of the payments coming from abroad and the amount of payments which go abroad, also decreased to 11.8 billion euros in July as in June was 18.5 billion euros.

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Thursday, August 28, 2008

American markets continue to grow

Business women
The U.S. markets started the session with the increase after today published details of the value of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter recorded a significant revision to the original. The country's economy grew by 3.3% in 2nd quarter, to initially declared value of 1.9%. Under the impact of news on the stock exchange session in New York the dollar rise against the euro by 0.16%, compared to yesterday, reaching 1.4702 USD / EUR.
The price of oil went down again, taking two hours after the start of the session the contracts with delivery in October for U.S. crude oil were getting cheaper with 0.38 percent, to 117.70 U.S. dollars for a barrel. Optimism of U.S. investors due to a simple maxim, a stronger growth of the economy means higher profits.
The wide index of U.S. companies Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0.86% to 1 292.74 points. The index of top U.S. companies DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL increased to 11 658.92 points or 1.36% more than yesterday. The IT index rose NASDAQ COMPOSITE, two hours after the start of the session, with 0.83% to 2 402.24 points.
Freddie Mac continues its good performance from yesterday and got more expensive with 11,576%, to $ 7.23 for share. Federal National Mortgage Association, also raised to $ 7.28 for a share or a 12.35% increase from yesterday. The biggest U.S. company in the Mortgage sector continues its appreciation yesterday, after its Executive Director Daniel Mud replace its three leading deputies, in an attempt to return broken confidence of investors in the company, whose shares lost nearly 90% of its value since the beginning of credit crisis.

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Bulgaria and Romanish are increasing pensions

pensions increasing
The Romanian government increased pensions by more than 20 percent in November, announced the publication Balkansite. Analysts argue that this is related to parliamentary elections. The decision follows the plan of central government in Eastern European contry from last year's double increase in pensions between 2008 and 2009 year, which brought a lot of criticisms of many rating agencies.
Pensions have a significant impact on inflation. The decision of the cabinet is a way to attract the interest of the electorate, says economic analyst Radi Soviani. The average pension in Romania is around 100 euros. The Bulgarian government is also preparing to increase the money for older people. More than 60 percent of older people in Bulgaria will receive higher pensions after their recalculation from 1 October this year. This is clear from today's changes in the Social Security Code during the meeting of the National Council for cooperation involving Social Minister Emilia Maslarova. From 1st July in Bulgarian minimum pension insurance experience and age is U.S. $ 113.49, adopted the National Assembly. Since the beginning of January to June 30, 2008 the minimum pension for the experience was U.S. $ 102.85.

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Monday, August 18, 2008

Higher trade deficit in the European Union

Trade Deficit
According to information published today by the European statistical office Eurostat, the first estimates the trade balance of the euro with the rest of the world for the month of June 2008 show 100 million deficit. In June 2007 the euro is enjoyed 7.5 billion trade surplus. However, in May this year the deficit was 3.9 billion euros. In June, exports rose by 1.4% and imports by 2.9% from the previous month. Initial estimates for the trade balance of the entire European Union of 27 members shows a deficit of 20.1 billion euros in June, as a year earlier the minus was 9.1 billion for the increase of foreign trade deficit in the EU as we know, serious and Bulgaria contributes, with a negative balance of 3.9 billion euros for the period. Imports of EU on a monthly basis in June 2008 has increased by 2.7% and exports by 0.5%.
Most significant is the shortage of the European Union's energy sector - 148.6 billion for the period January - May 2008, compared with slightly over 100 billion euros for the same period of 2007. Foreign trade surplus has in trade with machinery and vehicles (+59.9 billion compared with +44.0 billion).

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Incomes for Russia from Oil and Gas 3 times less to 2023

Alexei Kudrin
Income of federal budget in Russia from oil and gas sector will decrease nearly triple in 2023 on the Finance Minister has stated on Russian Federation Alexei Kudrin, quoted by RIA Novosti. The Ministry of Finance predicts that the incomes of the budget system of oil and gas will be get lower from 8.8% of Gross Domestic Product (in 2007) to 3.1% in 2023 years. In Kudrin's words this will happen because of mass decommissioning of old deposits.
In the Ministry of Finance estimates of the fall in oil income in the budget will be determined not by the decline in prices of raw materials, but to reduce the share of oil and gas sector in the structure of Gross Domestic Product. This trend will not change, even if prices are maintained within 120 to 150 dollars for a barrel. Overall income of the federal budget will reduce from 23.6% from GDP in 2007 to 12.9% in 2023. The decrease in revenue from oil and gas sectors will also be due to the increase in the minimum estimated non-tax yield of oil - in 2009 from 9 to 15 dollars for a barrel. Furthermore, in some regions of Russia extraction of oil will be happy to "tax holiday". The absolute record in oil buisiness of Russia was in February this year. For the first half of 2008 the yield of oil and gas fell by 0.3% over the same indicator of the previous year.

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Thursday, August 14, 2008

German economy with first drop from 4 years

germany Life
In the second quarter of 2008 the economy of Germany droped for the first time in four years. The Gross Domestic Product of the country is 0.5% lower as compared with the first quarter of the year, announced the national statistical office, quoted by Shpigel Online. This decrease corresponds to the expectations of macroeconomists, who provided a lower score mainly because of economic decrease in the construction sector.
During the first three months of the year GDP main indicator of the value created inside the country's production has rose by 1.3%. According to an annual weighted data in the second quarter of 2008 the economy of West Germany increased with 1.7%. The problems of the German economy are too expensive EUR, growth in inflation and fall in demand globally. After the 2.5% economic growth in 2007, German statisticians expect this year to GDP increased by 1.7% and in 2008 - by 1.2%. Probably when 11 hours of Luxembourg EU statistical office Eurostat announced data on economic growth in the euro zone, to understand the first decrease in GDP in Europe since EUR was put into circulation.

Euro falls against dollar significantly yesterday and is razmenyashe around $ 1.4843 - and still for the last 12 months euros increased by 10% its value against the U.S. dollar.

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Wednesday, August 13, 2008

China Increased the tax over large engine cars

Mercedes SL65AMGBS
Yesterday China announced that in order to overcome the pollution and reduce fuel consumption will increase taxes on large personal cars - and will reduce them to small cars, reported Reuters. China is the second in the world oil consumer after the United States. However, commentators argue that the new tax will have only limited effect. Chinese authorities do not want to crash with taxes the delaying road market in the country. Consumer tax on motor vehicle with more than 4 liters will be doubled and now is 40%, indicating the Ministry of Finance. For cars with an engine 3 to 4 liters tax will be increased by 25% from 15%.
The tax on small cars with engine 1 liter and less will fall from the current 3% to 1%. Taxes remain unchanged for cars between 1 and 2.5 litres, which constitute nearly 90% of the vehicle fleet in China. Less than 1% of cars in China are with engines over 3 liters. Buyers are government functionaries, for which the higher costs have a reverse effect and actually will make them to consume more.

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US Markets started with decrease

american economy
U.S. markets started the day with the downturn because the terrible reports profits of Deere & Co and Macy's, and the pessimism of investors caused by the estimate of Merrill Lynch, that the expansion of the collapse of the Mortgage market will continue even longer.
Deere, the largest producer of tractors in the world, reported a drop in profits during the third (April-June) financial quarter due to higher prices of raw materials. Since the company registered a reduction of net income to $ 1.32 per share. Securities company are getting cheaper with 6.43%, to $ 64.89, at the opening level of $ 62,430.
Macy's, the second largest chain of stores in the U.S., got cheaper for the second consecutive day after its sales fell because of the growth of unemployment and the decrease in consumption caused mainly by high fuel prices. Shares of the company fell by 2.86%, to $ 19.69, at the opening level of $ 19.77.

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Eurepean Union with great crop

crop wheat
In this agriculture year Europe enjoys an excellent harvest and the EU forecast that the northern hemisphere in the prices of food products will be lower - after months filled with riots of poor food. The published forecasts, which are a positive signal for cheaper food, although to play and other factors - has been appointed spokesman of the European Commission.
It is expected that U.S. agricultural production also rose in August. The United States is the largest exporter of wheat. Australia, where the harvest was affected by the great drought, experiencing rain in recent weeks. In the European Union total harvest (including potatoes, sugar beet and sunflower) will reach 301 million tons. This is 16% more than the proceeds in 2007 and nine percent above the average production for the past five years.
For best results have helped to rising prices, which represent a large incentive for farmers - and the elimination of European regulation should be left aside areas. It should be thanked and climate. In Paris peak in the price of wheat was reached in February with a price 248 euros per tonne. On Tuesday November Aysha wheat supply 26% less - 183.75 euros per tonne. Countries that rely on the international market for its supplies, such as Pakistan and Tunisia, rushed to buy the necessary quantities at their current low prices.

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Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Drop is Business and Users confidence in Japan

japan Business
Today in Japan were published data for the index CGPI (Corporate Goods Price Index), which measures the level of inflation from the previous month when the contract of goods by corporations. In July the index grew with 2.0% in the forecasts of analysts to maintain the rate of increase of 0.8 percent registered in June. On an annual basis, inflation of contracts to corporations accelerate to 7.1 percent.
Another report today showed the accelerate of the decrease in value of production at factories, mines and services in Japan in July. Industrial output react quickly to increases and decreases in the business cycle and is a leading indicator of employment in this sector, average income and personal income. Industrial production in the country has decreased during the last month by 2.2%, to decrease from 2.0 percent recorded in June. Crisis, the Japanese economy grow and reflect and index of consumer confidence in the country.
In July the index which measured possitive expectings to a consumers has reached a level of 31.4 points, which is its lowest level for the past 26 years. By the index of consumer confidence is forecast trends in employment and the general state of the economy because it is strong indicator of future changes in consumer spending. In June the value of the index of consumer confidence was 32.6 points, as forecasts of analysts were to fall to 32.0 points in July.

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The World Bank with confidence for the Economy of Georgia

The World Bank expressed in the communique its confidence in the economy of Georgia in this "extremely critical moments for the country, which is in armed conflict with Russia".
"In these extremely critical moments for Georgia, the World Bank would like to express its confidence in the powerful economic sustain the country," said the international financial institution in the communique drawn up by its office in Tbilisi. It speaks for large stocks of currency, prudent monetary and budgetary policy and broad reforms in the financial sector, strengthen the banking sector.

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Delay of France inflation

Eiffel Tower
Retail prices decreased with 0.2% in July in France, as their appreciation on an annual basis was 3.6 percent as of June, according to final data published by the National Statistical Office (INSEE). These figures led Luc Shantel, Secretary of State Consumer Affairs and spokesman of the government to declare that "the tip of inflation is behind us". However, the growth of consumer prices in France by 3.6 percent, remains the largest of July 1991 onwards.
In June it was reported inflation of consumer prices by 0.4 percent on monthly base. Harmonised index of consumer prices, which was established with the aim of uniformity measuring changes in the prices of consumer goods and services in all countries of the euro shows further slowdown in inflation in France in July, by 0.3 percent. On an annual basis, the harmonised index of consumer prices into account the drop in inflation in July to 4.0 percent, against 4.1 percent in June. The factors that give rise to the reduction of inflationary pressure, however, are primarily for a typical summer decrease in prices of clothing and footwear. Also serious factor is lower prices of fresh products and household equipment, which reduced demand during the season. This decrease was limited by the increase in prices of services, transport and communications growth and inflation of food except for fresh products. In addition, energy prices and health services in France increased slightly, while prices of rent, overhead costs and health services have remained stable.

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Monday, August 11, 2008

Russian Gas is not reaching Armenia

Press office of the Energy Ministry of Armenia reports that deliveries of Russian gas through the territory of Georgia fell by 30%, reported Gazetta.ru. Unsuficiant gas in Armenia offset the expense of reserve stocks. Meanwhile in Armenia from Georgia have evacuated 750 Russian citizens communicated is the Chief of the management of information on Armenia.
The President of Georgia Mikhail Saakashvili today signed a document for a ceasefire, prepared by foreign ministers of France and Finland. The contents of the document is not specified. The Ministers will carry this document in Moscow, where he will meet with representatives of the authorities and will seek signatures of Dmitriy Medvedev. Of the General Staff of Russia's application Saakashvili called fraud, for Crogi public opinion. Media in the region report that 1200 Armenians, paused breaks in the Georgian Black Sea resorts Batumi and Kobuleti, evacuated by aircraft in Armenia.

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China will be the the largest producer in the world

China producer
In the next year China is expected to anticipate the U.S. as the largest worldwide manufacturer of consumer goods - four years earlier than expected, reported Financial Times. This comes as a result of rapid weaker economy of the USA.
Finded big change is in the study of American consulting company Global Insight particular FT. According to their estimates, in 2009 China will establish 17% of the value added in the global industry (11 783 billions US Dollars), while the U.S. share will be 16%. Last year the United States still had sensitive advantage in this index: 20% of world production in China was 13.2%.
According to the president of the National Manufacturers Association in the U.S., these projections reflect the true trend. China is inevitably to anticipate the amount for themselves.
However, this is welcome to the U.S. because on the one hand create political stability in the largest population country in the world, on the other increases the possibility of the U.S. to export and invest in the fastest growing economy.
Until last year, economists at Global Insight forecast that the U.S. will maintain its leadership position until 2013 that reduced only in the U.S. industry during this and next year is expected to be more significant than the original estimates.

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Saturday, August 9, 2008

More expensive US shares with cheaper crude oil

stock exchange
On the last for this week's stock shares in the U.S. session noted sensitive growth, as the index of most companies for the licvidity DJIA marked increase of 302 points or 2.7% to 11734. Significantly increased and the index S & P 500 (2.4%) and the Nasdaq Composite (2.5%). According to Bloomberg agency that should be attributed to lower prices of raw materials, which should mean higher profits for companies in industry, transport and trade.
Dollar appreciated against most significant euros from almost eight years. This reflects negatively on the prices of raw materials, fixed in dollars. The price of a barrel of crude oil yesterday in New York fell by almost $ 4 to $ 115.20, decrease the fourth week of five. The weighted average price of petrol in the United States, which reached a record on 17 July to 4.114 U.S. dollars for galon, yesterday fell to 3.836 U.S. dollars, the lowest of 21 May, the data show the U.S. automobile association. The prices of metals and cereals also fell after the strengthening of the dollar took the attractiveness of commercial goods as a means to prevent inflation. "the breaking of raw material prices and changes in the users investing trust" - indicating investor from New Jersey. Among the most profitable shares were those of McDonald's Corp., Which yesterday cost most since the company started to be traded on the exchange prior to 43 years. Sales in July were exceeded expectations. Other companies that perform better than expectations, are Cisco Systems and Procter & Gamble.

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Thursday, July 31, 2008

The ADP survey about US unemployment

ADP survey for the net change in jobs in the private sector in the U.S. in July showed employment rising by 9 thousand people in expectations for 55 thousand people sacked as the previous survey showed 79 thousand sacked. The range of forecasts was reduced to between 110 thousand and 40 thousands, when the ADP revised the information for June to 77 thousand redundant to the previous 79 thousand people. This study is before the government data on the state of housing markets on Friday which is expected to show 75 thousand redundant as this will be 7 - my serial month of reductions in the world's largest economy.

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Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Crude oil prices fell again

rafinery
The crude oil was traded close to 12 weeks minimum because of speculation that the consumption of gasoline in Asia and the U.S. will decrease because of higher fuel prices. Contracts of lightest U.S. crude oil with delivery in September traded today before the start of European session for about 121.83 U.S. dollars per barrel, or 0.36 percent discount from yesterday.
Support forecasts for a decline in consumption of gasoline became the reduction of subsidies in some Asian countries, leading to a rise in prices to final customers, noted representatives of Singapore Petroleum, the only company refining oil in Singapore. In a report published yesterday by MasterCard - to regular weekly reduction in consumption of gasoline in the United States.
Reduction of subsidies was taken by governments in India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia, leading to serious slumping of diesel and petrol in these countries over the past two months.
Yesterday during a session of the NYMEX price of oil futures with delivery in September fell to 120.42 U.S. dollars for a barrel.
Today the Ministry of Energy of the United States will publish a report on daily stocks with fuel and oil to U.S. companies, expected to be reported decline in stocks of gasoline for consecutive week.

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Monday, July 28, 2008

Financial sector pressed the US markets

Tyson Foods
U.S. markets started the day with the reduction, led by financial companies after by announce of the IMF that the end of the credit crisis is still far.
Citigroup and Bank of America leaded the companies in the banking sector in the fall in prices of the shares, and Verizon Communications, the second largest telephone operator in the United States began the session with a four-month decline to a minimum, after taking into account greater than expected reduction in the fixed-line subscriptions in the country.
Also the Tyson Foods, which is the second largest producer of chicken reported a fall in market capitalisation after it reported a reduction in profits by 92% in the first half of the year because of high prices of maize.
Nearly half the companies listed in Standard & Poor's 500 recorded in its forecasts for the third quarter expectations for a drop in profits, which reflects the price of their shares.
Fall in the market was limited by Kraft Foods, once the second largest producer of food in the world announced earnings for the second quarter, higher than expected by market analysts.

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Sunday, July 27, 2008

IMM speculative possitions for the week untill 22.07.08

The IMM speculative positions for the week until on 22.07.08 showed a sharp reduction in net short positions in US Dolalrs, based on information from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The USA net short positions against other six major currencies (EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY, CAD, AUD) signed fall in half to $ 9.66 billion for the week until on 22.07.08 to net short positions for $ 20.01 billion during the previous week to laying 15.07.08
For the last week at 22.07.08 on there was a strong decrease in net long positions in the Euro to only 4 071 contract (for every 125 000 euros) to net long positions amounting to 23 049 contract during the previous week, which IS UR / USD board to a new record peak at 1.6038 dollars, but not managed to keep permanently higher levels. In view of the series rather weak economic data from the Eurozone (risk of recession) is not excluded to have experience and to open net short possitions in EUR, but only breakthrough of the EUR / USD below 1.5660/1.5585 may lead to more serious net short positions in EUR.
The net long position in YEN for the last week on 22.07.08 were wound up dramatically to 10 524 contract (each about 12 500 000 yen) to net long positions in the yen amounted to 50 105 contract the previous week.
There fall in net long speculative possitions in GBP per week until on 22.07.08 and they amounted to 3 322 contract (each about 62 000 pounds) compared to net long positions amounting to 6 423 contract for the previous week to laying 15.07.08

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Thursday, July 24, 2008

German business confidence is falling

businesswoman
German business confidence falling for 4 - th consecutive months as it is the sharp decrease from its September 2005
The IFO index of business expectations in Germany (for the next 6 months) in July falling to 90.0 points in expectations for a decrease to 93.2 point in June as he was at a level of 94.7 points. This is the lowest level since November 2002.
The IFO business climate index in Germany in July falling to 97.5 points in expectations for a decrease to 100.0 points in June as it was at a level of 101.3 points. This is his 3 years bottom and at a low level of September 2005 here.
The IFO business index of current conditions in Germany for July dropped to 105.7 points from 108.3 for June and on expectations for a modest decline to 106.0 points.
Aberger of German IFO institute said it sees no danger of recession in Germany, but the economy is reduced significantly and expects consumer spending in the country this year to remain weak. The European Central Bank should keep its main interest rate unchanged. Nerb of the IFO institute said that the economic recovery of Germany finished (with a view to weaker index for July). Said that oil prices continue to get more weight over the German economy and that price declines in recent days may have a positive impact on the IFO index in the future.
Nerb said that the Euro (expensive euro) also affect the IFO index.
Nerb recommended that the ECB interest to stocks unchanged in the current 4.25%.

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3 different direction for the interest rate of Bank of England

Bank of England
One politician from the Bank of England has voted to increase the basic rate of the last meeting of the bank as another member of the Council has voted to decrease as both are claimed as a reason economic growth and inflation are increasing.
Minutes from the last meeting showed that Timothy Bizli wanted immediate increase of 25 basis points of the basic interest rate, and David Blenchflauer voted for lowering interest. This led to the first triple division into three parts in May 2006 here the decision was difficult for all 9 members with a view of growing inflation and delay of the economic growth in May.
Market analysts expected a vote of 8 to 1 to preserve the basic rate. After became clear minutes sterling has increased after it became clear that there is little support for the decline in the basic interest rate.
Council members appeared set to a greater degree of increase in the basic interest rate in order to preserve price stability, but is concerned about the economic cost of such a decision.
Most of the market expected interest rate to remain unchanged until the end of the year before its eventual decline because decreasing economic growth. Bank of England, however, is affraid from growing inflation, which has almost doubled over the desired level of the Bank.
Support a finding of a possible rise in interest is the recent economic data for the country, which witnessed a serious slowdown and the threat of higher inflation over the medium term.
According to politicians, despite data on the growth of the economy in the second quarter, which will become clear on Friday and will most likely have slightly improved the overall economy continues to slow, according to research analysts of Bank of England.

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High jump of Russian fuel prices

Visa Electron
The fuel increase its price with 18.7% in Russia since the beginning of the year, and the diesel oil - with 27.7%.
The prices of petrol jumped with 0.7% for one week of a diesel - by 1%, writes "Gazeta ru".
Only since the beginning of the month the fuel grew by 2.2% and diesel - by 2.9%. Increase in average fuel prices registered 50% in the center of the Russian Federation. The price per litre of petrol in Russia is 1.2 dollars, while in the U.S. - 1.4 dollars.
Experts recommend not to compare the prices of fuel in Russia and the U.S., because pricing in different countries varies. Besides the price of fuel, grow and prices of other goods.
Russian authorities have not changed its official forecast for inflation for the year in 2008 amounting to 10.5%. Assessment specialists, however, it will exceed 14%.

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Good news about US Dollar

US Dollar
The price of the dollar near two-week up against the euro after the rise of the shares of financial companies increased expectings that the Fed will increase from interest rates by the end of the year.
Noted U.S. currency rise against the Japanese yen and while was traded close to one up after Congress approved the plan of Finance Minister Henry Polsan to stabilize the condition of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Pressure on the single European currency are giving even more negative data coming from the economies in the euro.
Yesterday the dollar reached $ 1.5670 against the euro, which was the strong performance of its 9 - July.
U.S. currency reached yesterday at 107.99 yen, which was the highest level of 26 June.

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Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Romania and Bulgaria with bad report from Brussels

European Government Brussels
Romanians got much criticism for insufficient efforts in combating corruption, but rescued the money from European funds. Less then a month when representatives of the Romanian government, strongly argued that the country will clicked on gas absorption of EU funds. Until in 2013 Romania has access to 32 billion euros, which may absorbed through quality projects.The country has managed to convince Brussels it nevertheless started "witch-hunt among corrupt politicians.
Bloomberg Agency "clarified that the Romanian Prosecutor's Office had accused 10 current and former ministers in corruption, including the ex-premier Adrian Nastase and the Minister of Labour. The report indicates however that was not marked "real progress" in none of the ten key case are involved former statesmen.
At the same time, however, Brussels decline that decisions related to corruption at high levels in Romania are too politicised and is necessary to demonstrate that there are penalties for such acts. The European Commission has requested Romania to be uncompromising with corruption cases. The Romanians still can not escape from its Balkan mentality and the resemblances with Bulgaria are many. As to Bulgaria and Romania got many critics from Brussels for a lack of political consensus for judicial reform and fight against corruption in high-level power.

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Thursday, July 17, 2008

Cruide oil under 130 USD per barel

George Soros
The crude oil with delivery in August got cheaper with more than 4 USD per barel, which was the third decrease this week. This time the basic features of lower prices were 2, futures of the Natural Gas got cheaper, because of the indications that global economy delay will decrease the requesting of the petrol and George Soros made his serial media speculation. There si also one more reason ffor decreasing of the cruide oil price, and this is the fact, that the term for signing agreements for delivery of crude oil is finishing today and the investors are directed to September futurers.
The August options at price of 130 USD per barel were the most traded options of NYMEX today. The futurers of the Natural Gas got cheaper with more than 7%, after the report of the Ministry of Energy about the stores of American companies, which increased with 4.71% in the last week. Now the stores are about 65.496 millions cubic meters, which is more than expectings. In the same time the data from last weeks showed delay in European, British, American and Chinese economies.
Yesterday in Forbes was published analyse, in which the billionaire investor George Soros had realized his short petrol possitions at price about 137 USD per barel and had abought a long possitions on the market in gold. According to Soros the price of the crude oil will continue to decrease and the gold will continue seriously to increase.

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Delay of the economy hit the export of Greece

Georgios Alogoskoufis
The global delay of the economy and the strong EUR, both hit the export of Greece in the first 5 months of the year, wrote the Greece newspaper "Ekatemarini". The media quoted the words of the Greece financial miniter Georgios Alogoskoufis, according to who, is expected the data for May to showmore positive tendention. The growing of the export of the South European country was the best prove for Greece economy expansion for the last years. This also confirmed Greece as a coutry, which can make profits from trading with the neighbour countries.
The incomes from exports of the country hbad increased to 9.6% from Gross Domestic Product in 2007. In 2004 the same data was 8.4% from the Gross Domestic Product. After the period of strong development of export last years, the export dropped with 4.6% in the first 5 months of 2008 in comparison with the last year. The calculations are showing, that in May there is growing of 21%, but dificulties are visible, told the Greece financial minister. The government revised the expectings for growing of economy this year from 4% to 3.6%. The government sources are claiming, that most probably will there is new revision of the parameters in the Autumn.
Georgios Alogoskoufis put the all faults the employees of the harbours Salonika and Pireaus, which were in strike.

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Tue